It is estimated that 8, 172 new HIV infections will occur in the next 12 months out of population of 953 215 adults aged 15-49 years in Botswana. The largest proportion of the new infections, (53.48%) are expected to occur among the supposedly low risk heterosexual populations which includes married couples and those living together.

According to the recently completed Modes of Transmission Study, individuals engaged in casual heterosexual sex and their partners will contribute 23.92% of new infections.Men who have Sex with Men, (MSM)  and their partners are estimated to contribute 10.55% while sex workers and their clients will contribute 8.6%. A small proportion of infections are expected to occur as a result of medical injections, blood transfusions and injecting drug use.

The estimation is based on the population size, exposure and number of exposures that are protected and the transmission possibilities. The study used the Estimation and Projection Package to project the trends of HIV prevalence and spectrum to estimate other indicators including the number of people living with HIV, persons newly infected with HIV, number of AIDS deaths and the number of people with HIV on treatment.

The study will provide answers to whether HIV prevention policies are based on the latest available evidence and global best practices, if HIV prevention policies and programmes respond to the key drivers of  HIV and whether funding for HIV prevention is allocated where it is most needed.